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Milsami Orhei vs Sfîntul Gheorghe — Cupa 2020

Milsami Orhei
Milsami Orhei
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sfîntul Gheorghe
Sfîntul Gheorgheadvanced
4/26/2022CupaCupa · Semi-finalsStadionul Zimbru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Milsami Orhei27%
×Draw20%
Sfîntul Gheorghe53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milsami Orhei
1.60
Sfîntul Gheorghe
2.29

Sfîntul Gheorghe creates 43% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

creates per match

Milsami Orhei
2.45
Sfîntul Gheorghe
3.50

allows per match

Milsami Orhei
1.09
Sfîntul Gheorghe
0.75

finishing

Milsami Orhei+0.00on par
Sfîntul Gheorghe+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milsami Orhei ↓

Sfîntul Gheorghe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Milsami Orhei or draw
47%
Milsami Orhei or Sfîntul Gheorghe
80%
Draw or Sfîntul Gheorghe
73%

Winning margin

Milsami Orhei wins by 2+
12%
Sfîntul Gheorghe wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Milsami Orhei 1+ goals
80%
Milsami Orhei 2+ goals
47%
Milsami Orhei 3+ goals
22%
Sfîntul Gheorghe 1+ goals
90%
Sfîntul Gheorghe 2+ goals
66%
Sfîntul Gheorghe 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Milsami Orhei (draw refunded)
34%
Sfîntul Gheorghe (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milsami Orhei at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Sfîntul Gheorghe away — creates 3.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milsami Orhei attack 2.45 + Sfîntul Gheorghe defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sfîntul Gheorghe attack 3.50 + Milsami Orhei defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Milsami Orhei scores more
27%
level
20%
Sfîntul Gheorghe scores more
53%

Sfîntul Gheorghe at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sfîntul Gheorghe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cupa: Milsami Orhei 0–2 Sfîntul Gheorghe

Sfîntul Gheorghe beat Milsami Orhei 2-0 in Cupa on April 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Zimbru in Chişinău.