Sfîntul Gheorghe 3–0 Floreşti: Result & Stats

Sfîntul Gheorghe

FT

3 – 0

Floreşti

4/12/2022

Cupa · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sfîntul Gheorghe36%

×Draw36%

Floreşti27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sfîntul GheorgheExpected goals in this matchFloreşti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

0.68

Sfîntul Gheorghe

0.83

Floreşti

0.68

Sfîntul Gheorghe creates 22% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

1.17

0.20

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Sfîntul Gheorghe

1.00

Floreşti

1.17

allows per match

Sfîntul Gheorghe

0.20

Floreşti

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sfîntul Gheorghe+0.00on par

Floreşti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under81
Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sfîntul Gheorghe ↓

Floreşti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–022%

0–115%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–15%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

78%22%1.5

45%55%2.5

19%81%3.5

7%93%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Sfîntul Gheorghe or draw

73%

Sfîntul Gheorghe or Floreşti

64%

Draw or Floreşti

64%

Winning margin

Sfîntul Gheorghe wins by 2+

12%

Floreşti wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sfîntul Gheorghe 1+ goals

56%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 2+ goals

20%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 3+ goals

5%

Floreşti 1+ goals

49%

Floreşti 2+ goals

15%

Floreşti 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sfîntul Gheorghe (draw refunded)

57%

Floreşti (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

15%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sfîntul Gheorghe at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Floreşti away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sfîntul Gheorghe attack 1.00 + Floreşti defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Floreşti attack 1.17 + Sfîntul Gheorghe defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sfîntul Gheorghe scores more

36%

level

36%

Floreşti scores more

27%

Sfîntul Gheorghe at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sfîntul Gheorghe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff