Sfîntul Gheorghe 0–1 Dinamo-Auto: Result & Stats

Sfîntul Gheorghe

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo-Auto

9/12/2021

Super Liga · Round 9Baza Zimbru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Sfîntul Gheorghe49%

×Draw23%

Dinamo-Auto28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sfîntul GheorgheExpected goals in this matchDinamo-Auto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.29

Sfîntul Gheorghe

1.79

Dinamo-Auto

1.29

Sfîntul Gheorghe creates 39% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 55 away

1.35

creates per match

1.35

1.24

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Sfîntul Gheorghe

1.35

Dinamo-Auto

1.35

allows per match

Sfîntul Gheorghe

1.24

Dinamo-Auto

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sfîntul Gheorghe+0.00on par

Dinamo-Auto+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sfîntul Gheorghe ↓

Dinamo-Auto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sfîntul Gheorghe or draw

72%

Sfîntul Gheorghe or Dinamo-Auto

77%

Draw or Dinamo-Auto

51%

Winning margin

Sfîntul Gheorghe wins by 2+

27%

Dinamo-Auto wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sfîntul Gheorghe 1+ goals

83%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 2+ goals

53%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 3+ goals

26%

Dinamo-Auto 1+ goals

72%

Dinamo-Auto 2+ goals

37%

Dinamo-Auto 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sfîntul Gheorghe (draw refunded)

64%

Dinamo-Auto (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sfîntul Gheorghe at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

Dinamo-Auto away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.22 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sfîntul Gheorghe attack 1.35 + Dinamo-Auto defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.79

Dinamo-Auto attack 1.35 + Sfîntul Gheorghe defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sfîntul Gheorghe scores more

49%

level

23%

Dinamo-Auto scores more

28%

Sfîntul Gheorghe at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sfîntul Gheorghe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff