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Sfera U20 vs São José EC U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Sfera U20
Sfera U20
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
São José EC U20
São José EC U20
Joao Paulo 80'
L. Gentil 66'
K. Santana 24'
7/4/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Centro de Treinamento do Red Bull Brasil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sfera U2060%
×Draw20%
São José EC U2019%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sfera U20
2.20
São José EC U20
1.17

Sfera U20 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sfera U20
2.25
São José EC U20
1.15

allows per match

Sfera U20
1.19
São José EC U20
2.15

finishing

Sfera U20+0.00on par
São José EC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 65Under: 3565%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sfera U20 ↓

São José EC U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sfera U20 or draw
81%
Sfera U20 or São José EC U20
80%
Draw or São José EC U20
40%

Winning margin

Sfera U20 wins by 2+
38%
São José EC U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sfera U20 1+ goals
89%
Sfera U20 2+ goals
64%
Sfera U20 3+ goals
37%
São José EC U20 1+ goals
69%
São José EC U20 2+ goals
33%
São José EC U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sfera U20 (draw refunded)
76%
São José EC U20 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sfera U20 at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

São José EC U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sfera U20 attack 2.25 + São José EC U20 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.20

São José EC U20 attack 1.15 + Sfera U20 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sfera U20 scores more
60%
level
20%
São José EC U20 scores more
19%

Sfera U20 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sfera U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
K. Santana
66'
E. Rosario
66'
L. Gentil
80'
Joao Paulo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sfera U20 3 – 0 São José EC U20

Sfera U20 beat São José EC U20 3-0 in Paulista - U20 on July 4, 2025.

Goals: K. Santana (24'), L. Gentil (66'), Joao Paulo (80').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento do Red Bull Brasil in Jarinu, São Paulo.