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Sfera U20 vs São Caetano U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Sfera U20
Sfera U20
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
São Caetano U20
São Caetano U20
I. Araujo 59'
Breno Cristian 36'
E. Saldana 90+3'
I. Araujo 77' (OG)
Montti 75'
5/9/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 3Centro de Treinamento do Red Bull Brasil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Sfera U2054%
×Draw23%
São Caetano U2023%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sfera U20
1.82
São Caetano U20
1.12

Sfera U20 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

creates per match

Sfera U20
2.25
São Caetano U20
1.05

allows per match

Sfera U20
1.19
São Caetano U20
1.40

finishing

Sfera U20+0.00on par
São Caetano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sfera U20 ↓

São Caetano U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sfera U20 or draw
77%
Sfera U20 or São Caetano U20
77%
Draw or São Caetano U20
46%

Winning margin

Sfera U20 wins by 2+
30%
São Caetano U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sfera U20 1+ goals
84%
Sfera U20 2+ goals
54%
Sfera U20 3+ goals
27%
São Caetano U20 1+ goals
67%
São Caetano U20 2+ goals
31%
São Caetano U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sfera U20 (draw refunded)
70%
São Caetano U20 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sfera U20 at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

São Caetano U20 away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sfera U20 attack 2.25 + São Caetano U20 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.82

São Caetano U20 attack 1.05 + Sfera U20 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sfera U20 scores more
54%
level
23%
São Caetano U20 scores more
23%

Sfera U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sfera U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
Breno Cristian
59'
I. Araujo
75'
Montti
77'
I. AraujoOwn goal
90+3'
E. Saldana

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sfera U20 2 – 3 São Caetano U20

São Caetano U20 beat Sfera U20 3-2 in Paulista - U20 on May 9, 2025.

Goals: Breno Cristian (36'), I. Araujo (59', 77' o.g.), Montti (75'), E. Saldana (90+3').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento do Red Bull Brasil in Jarinu, São Paulo.