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Sfera U20 vs Santos U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Sfera U20
Sfera U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Santos U20
Santos U20
Leo Aquino 48'
Breno Cristian 17'
Enzo Boer 83'
4/26/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 1Centro de Treinamento do Red Bull Brasil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Sfera U2040%
×Draw25%
Santos U2035%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sfera U20
1.52
Santos U20
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 25 away

creates per match

Sfera U20
2.25
Santos U20
1.64

allows per match

Sfera U20
1.19
Santos U20
0.80

finishing

Sfera U20+0.00on par
Santos U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sfera U20 ↓

Santos U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sfera U20 or draw
65%
Sfera U20 or Santos U20
75%
Draw or Santos U20
60%

Winning margin

Sfera U20 wins by 2+
19%
Santos U20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sfera U20 1+ goals
78%
Sfera U20 2+ goals
45%
Sfera U20 3+ goals
20%
Santos U20 1+ goals
76%
Santos U20 2+ goals
41%
Santos U20 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sfera U20 (draw refunded)
53%
Santos U20 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sfera U20 at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Santos U20 away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sfera U20 attack 2.25 + Santos U20 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.52

Santos U20 attack 1.64 + Sfera U20 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sfera U20 scores more
40%
level
25%
Santos U20 scores more
35%

Sfera U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sfera U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
Breno Cristian
48'
Leo Aquino
73'
Abel
83'
Enzo Boer
90+1'
Joao Paulo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sfera U20 2 – 1 Santos U20

Sfera U20 beat Santos U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on April 26, 2025.

Goals: Breno Cristian (17'), Leo Aquino (48'), Enzo Boer (83').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento do Red Bull Brasil in Jarinu, São Paulo.