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Sfera U20 vs Ituano U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Sfera U20
Sfera U20
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Ituano U20
Ituano U20
Rafinha 83'
C. Breno 68'
R. Ribeiro 58'
Jhonatan 48'
Kaique Clemente 30' (pen)
Jonathan Vieira 3'
4/19/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Amadeu Mosca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Sfera U2046%
×Draw23%
Ituano U2031%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sfera U20
1.85
Ituano U20
1.50

Sfera U20 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

creates per match

Sfera U20
2.25
Ituano U20
1.80

allows per match

Sfera U20
1.19
Ituano U20
1.45

finishing

Sfera U20+0.00on par
Ituano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 65Under: 3565%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sfera U20 ↓

Ituano U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sfera U20 or draw
69%
Sfera U20 or Ituano U20
77%
Draw or Ituano U20
54%

Winning margin

Sfera U20 wins by 2+
25%
Ituano U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sfera U20 1+ goals
84%
Sfera U20 2+ goals
55%
Sfera U20 3+ goals
28%
Ituano U20 1+ goals
78%
Ituano U20 2+ goals
44%
Ituano U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sfera U20 (draw refunded)
59%
Ituano U20 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sfera U20 at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Ituano U20 away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sfera U20 attack 2.25 + Ituano U20 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.85

Ituano U20 attack 1.80 + Sfera U20 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sfera U20 scores more
46%
level
23%
Ituano U20 scores more
31%

Sfera U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sfera U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
Jonathan Vieira
30'
Kaique ClementePenalty
48'
Jhonatan
58'
R. Ribeiro
68'
C. Breno
83'
Rafinha

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Sfera U20 3–3 Ituano U20

Sfera U20 and Ituano U20 drew 3-3 in Paulista - U20 on April 19, 2024.

Goals: Jonathan Vieira (3'), Kaique Clemente (30' pen), Jhonatan (48'), R. Ribeiro (58'), C. Breno (68'), Rafinha (83').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Amadeu Mosca in Salto, São Paulo.