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SFC Minerva vs Santa Cruz — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

SFC Minerva
SFC Minerva
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Santa Cruz
Santa Cruz
12/14/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 14Campo Municipal El Secante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SFC Minerva31%
×Draw29%
Santa Cruz40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SFC Minerva
1.02
Santa Cruz
1.19

Santa Cruz creates 17% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 17 away

creates per match

SFC Minerva
1.22
Santa Cruz
1.29

allows per match

SFC Minerva
1.08
Santa Cruz
0.82

finishing

SFC Minerva+0.00on par
Santa Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFC Minerva ↓

Santa Cruz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

SFC Minerva or draw
60%
SFC Minerva or Santa Cruz
71%
Draw or Santa Cruz
69%

Winning margin

SFC Minerva wins by 2+
12%
Santa Cruz wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

SFC Minerva 1+ goals
64%
SFC Minerva 2+ goals
27%
SFC Minerva 3+ goals
8%
Santa Cruz 1+ goals
70%
Santa Cruz 2+ goals
33%
Santa Cruz 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

SFC Minerva (draw refunded)
44%
Santa Cruz (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SFC Minerva at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 63 matches

Santa Cruz away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SFC Minerva attack 1.22 + Santa Cruz defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.02

Santa Cruz attack 1.29 + SFC Minerva defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SFC Minerva scores more
31%
level
29%
Santa Cruz scores more
40%

Santa Cruz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Santa Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: SFC Minerva 0–2 Santa Cruz

Santa Cruz beat SFC Minerva 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 14, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Municipal El Secante in Alumbres.