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SFC Minerva vs Plus Ultra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

SFC Minerva
SFC Minerva
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Plus Ultra
Plus Ultra
5/4/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 33Campo Municipal El Secante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

SFC Minerva60%
×Draw22%
Plus Ultra18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SFC Minerva
1.89
Plus Ultra
0.94

SFC Minerva creates 101% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 63 away

creates per match

SFC Minerva
1.22
Plus Ultra
0.79

allows per match

SFC Minerva
1.08
Plus Ultra
2.56

finishing

SFC Minerva+0.00on par
Plus Ultra+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFC Minerva ↓

Plus Ultra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

SFC Minerva or draw
82%
SFC Minerva or Plus Ultra
78%
Draw or Plus Ultra
40%

Winning margin

SFC Minerva wins by 2+
35%
Plus Ultra wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

SFC Minerva 1+ goals
85%
SFC Minerva 2+ goals
56%
SFC Minerva 3+ goals
29%
Plus Ultra 1+ goals
61%
Plus Ultra 2+ goals
24%
Plus Ultra 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SFC Minerva (draw refunded)
76%
Plus Ultra (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SFC Minerva at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 63 matches

Plus Ultra away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.56 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SFC Minerva attack 1.22 + Plus Ultra defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.89

Plus Ultra attack 0.79 + SFC Minerva defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

SFC Minerva scores more
60%
level
22%
Plus Ultra scores more
18%

SFC Minerva at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "SFC Minerva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: SFC Minerva 4–0 Plus Ultra

SFC Minerva beat Plus Ultra 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Municipal El Secante in Alumbres.