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SFC Minerva vs Los Garres — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

SFC Minerva
SFC Minerva
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Los Garres
Los Garres
11/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 6Campo Municipal El Secante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

SFC Minerva45%
×Draw27%
Los Garres28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SFC Minerva
1.40
Los Garres
1.03

SFC Minerva creates 36% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 44 away

creates per match

SFC Minerva
1.22
Los Garres
0.98

allows per match

SFC Minerva
1.08
Los Garres
1.57

finishing

SFC Minerva+0.00on par
Los Garres+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFC Minerva ↓

Los Garres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

SFC Minerva or draw
72%
SFC Minerva or Los Garres
73%
Draw or Los Garres
55%

Winning margin

SFC Minerva wins by 2+
22%
Los Garres wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SFC Minerva 1+ goals
75%
SFC Minerva 2+ goals
41%
SFC Minerva 3+ goals
17%
Los Garres 1+ goals
64%
Los Garres 2+ goals
28%
Los Garres 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

SFC Minerva (draw refunded)
62%
Los Garres (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SFC Minerva at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 63 matches

Los Garres away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.57 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SFC Minerva attack 1.22 + Los Garres defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.40

Los Garres attack 0.98 + SFC Minerva defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

SFC Minerva scores more
45%
level
27%
Los Garres scores more
28%

SFC Minerva at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SFC Minerva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: SFC Minerva 0–1 Los Garres

Los Garres beat SFC Minerva 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Municipal El Secante in Alumbres.