SFC Minerva vs Lorca FC: Preview & Prediction

SFC Minerva

CANC

00:00

Lorca FC

4/12/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 33Campo Municipal El Secante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

SFC Minerva38%

×Draw30%

Lorca FC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SFC MinervaExpected goals in this matchLorca FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.01

SFC Minerva

1.11

Lorca FC

1.01

SFC Minerva creates 10% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 14 away

1.22

creates per match

0.93

1.08

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

SFC Minerva

1.22

Lorca FC

0.93

allows per match

SFC Minerva

1.08

Lorca FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SFC Minerva+0.00on par

Lorca FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFC Minerva ↓

Lorca FC →

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

SFC Minerva or draw

67%

SFC Minerva or Lorca FC

70%

Draw or Lorca FC

62%

Winning margin

SFC Minerva wins by 2+

15%

Lorca FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

SFC Minerva 1+ goals

67%

SFC Minerva 2+ goals

30%

SFC Minerva 3+ goals

10%

Lorca FC 1+ goals

64%

Lorca FC 2+ goals

27%

Lorca FC 3+ goals

Draw no bet

SFC Minerva (draw refunded)

54%

Lorca FC (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

SFC Minerva at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 63 matches

Lorca FC away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

SFC Minerva attack 1.22 + Lorca FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Lorca FC attack 0.93 + SFC Minerva defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

SFC Minerva scores more

38%

level

30%

Lorca FC scores more

33%

SFC Minerva at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "SFC Minerva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SFC Minerva vs Lorca FC — Match Preview

SFC Minerva face Lorca FC on April 12, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

SFC Minerva host Lorca FC at Campo Municipal El Secante.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

SFC Minerva vs Lorca FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

SFC Minerva vs Lorca FC — Match Preview