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SFC Minerva vs Lorca Deportiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

SFC Minerva
SFC Minerva
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Lorca Deportiva
Lorca Deportiva
8/25/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 1Campo Municipal El Secante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

SFC Minerva32%
×Draw27%
Lorca Deportiva41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SFC Minerva
1.14
Lorca Deportiva
1.33

Lorca Deportiva creates 17% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 80 away

creates per match

SFC Minerva
1.22
Lorca Deportiva
1.57

allows per match

SFC Minerva
1.08
Lorca Deportiva
1.06

finishing

SFC Minerva+0.00on par
Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFC Minerva ↓

Lorca Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

SFC Minerva or draw
59%
SFC Minerva or Lorca Deportiva
73%
Draw or Lorca Deportiva
68%

Winning margin

SFC Minerva wins by 2+
13%
Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

SFC Minerva 1+ goals
68%
SFC Minerva 2+ goals
32%
SFC Minerva 3+ goals
11%
Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals
74%
Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals
38%
Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

SFC Minerva (draw refunded)
44%
Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SFC Minerva at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 63 matches

Lorca Deportiva away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SFC Minerva attack 1.22 + Lorca Deportiva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Lorca Deportiva attack 1.57 + SFC Minerva defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

SFC Minerva scores more
32%
level
27%
Lorca Deportiva scores more
41%

Lorca Deportiva at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lorca Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SFC Minerva 2 – 2 Lorca Deportiva

SFC Minerva and Lorca Deportiva drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Municipal El Secante in Alumbres.