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SFC Minerva vs Huércal Overa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

SFC Minerva
SFC Minerva
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Huércal Overa
Huércal Overa
5/23/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2nd Phase - 7Campo Municipal El Secante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

SFC Minerva49%
×Draw27%
Huércal Overa24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SFC Minerva
1.45
Huércal Overa
0.94

SFC Minerva creates 54% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 47 away

creates per match

SFC Minerva
1.22
Huércal Overa
0.79

allows per match

SFC Minerva
1.08
Huércal Overa
1.68

finishing

SFC Minerva+0.00on par
Huércal Overa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFC Minerva ↓

Huércal Overa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

SFC Minerva or draw
76%
SFC Minerva or Huércal Overa
73%
Draw or Huércal Overa
51%

Winning margin

SFC Minerva wins by 2+
24%
Huércal Overa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

SFC Minerva 1+ goals
77%
SFC Minerva 2+ goals
42%
SFC Minerva 3+ goals
18%
Huércal Overa 1+ goals
61%
Huércal Overa 2+ goals
24%
Huércal Overa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SFC Minerva (draw refunded)
67%
Huércal Overa (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SFC Minerva at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 63 matches

Huércal Overa away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.68 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SFC Minerva attack 1.22 + Huércal Overa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.45

Huércal Overa attack 0.79 + SFC Minerva defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

SFC Minerva scores more
49%
level
27%
Huércal Overa scores more
24%

SFC Minerva at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "SFC Minerva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SFC Minerva vs Huércal Overa

SFC Minerva beat Huércal Overa 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 23, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Municipal El Secante in Alumbres.