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SFC Minerva vs Cartagena II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

SFC Minerva
SFC Minerva
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cartagena II
Cartagena II
10/20/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 9Campo Municipal El Secante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

SFC Minerva35%
×Draw28%
Cartagena II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SFC Minerva
1.15
Cartagena II
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 27 away

creates per match

SFC Minerva
1.22
Cartagena II
1.33

allows per match

SFC Minerva
1.08
Cartagena II
1.07

finishing

SFC Minerva+0.00on par
Cartagena II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFC Minerva ↓

Cartagena II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

SFC Minerva or draw
63%
SFC Minerva or Cartagena II
72%
Draw or Cartagena II
65%

Winning margin

SFC Minerva wins by 2+
14%
Cartagena II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

SFC Minerva 1+ goals
68%
SFC Minerva 2+ goals
32%
SFC Minerva 3+ goals
11%
Cartagena II 1+ goals
70%
Cartagena II 2+ goals
34%
Cartagena II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

SFC Minerva (draw refunded)
48%
Cartagena II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SFC Minerva at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 63 matches

Cartagena II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SFC Minerva attack 1.22 + Cartagena II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Cartagena II attack 1.33 + SFC Minerva defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

SFC Minerva scores more
35%
level
28%
Cartagena II scores more
37%

Cartagena II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cartagena II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SFC Minerva 2 – 1 Cartagena II

SFC Minerva beat Cartagena II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Municipal El Secante in Alumbres.