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SFC Minerva vs Alcantarilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

SFC Minerva
SFC Minerva
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Alcantarilla
Alcantarilla
2/9/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 21Campo Municipal El Secante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

SFC Minerva51%
×Draw27%
Alcantarilla22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SFC Minerva
1.41
Alcantarilla
0.83

SFC Minerva creates 70% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 49 away

creates per match

SFC Minerva
1.22
Alcantarilla
0.59

allows per match

SFC Minerva
1.08
Alcantarilla
1.59

finishing

SFC Minerva+0.00on par
Alcantarilla+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFC Minerva ↓

Alcantarilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

SFC Minerva or draw
78%
SFC Minerva or Alcantarilla
73%
Draw or Alcantarilla
49%

Winning margin

SFC Minerva wins by 2+
25%
Alcantarilla wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

SFC Minerva 1+ goals
76%
SFC Minerva 2+ goals
41%
SFC Minerva 3+ goals
17%
Alcantarilla 1+ goals
56%
Alcantarilla 2+ goals
20%
Alcantarilla 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

SFC Minerva (draw refunded)
70%
Alcantarilla (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SFC Minerva at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 63 matches

Alcantarilla away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.59 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SFC Minerva attack 1.22 + Alcantarilla defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.41

Alcantarilla attack 0.59 + SFC Minerva defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

SFC Minerva scores more
51%
level
27%
Alcantarilla scores more
22%

SFC Minerva at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "SFC Minerva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: SFC Minerva 0–1 Alcantarilla

Alcantarilla beat SFC Minerva 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Municipal El Secante in Alumbres.