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SfB-Oure vs Dalum — 3. Division 2021

SfB-Oure
SfB-Oure
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Dalum
Dalum
6/17/20233. Division3. Division · Relegation Round - 10S.f.B. Ryttervej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

SfB-Oure59%
×Draw21%
Dalum19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SfB-Oure
2.01
Dalum
1.06

SfB-Oure creates 90% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

creates per match

SfB-Oure
1.44
Dalum
0.66

allows per match

SfB-Oure
1.47
Dalum
2.59

finishing

SfB-Oure+0.00on par
Dalum+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SfB-Oure ↓

Dalum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

SfB-Oure or draw
81%
SfB-Oure or Dalum
79%
Draw or Dalum
41%

Winning margin

SfB-Oure wins by 2+
36%
Dalum wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

SfB-Oure 1+ goals
87%
SfB-Oure 2+ goals
59%
SfB-Oure 3+ goals
32%
Dalum 1+ goals
65%
Dalum 2+ goals
29%
Dalum 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

SfB-Oure (draw refunded)
75%
Dalum (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SfB-Oure at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.47 · 32 matches

Dalum away — creates 0.66, concedes 2.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SfB-Oure attack 1.44 + Dalum defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.01

Dalum attack 0.66 + SfB-Oure defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

SfB-Oure scores more
59%
level
21%
Dalum scores more
19%

SfB-Oure at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "SfB-Oure will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SfB-Oure 2 – 1 Dalum

SfB-Oure beat Dalum 2-1 in 3. Division on June 17, 2023.

The match was played at S.f.B. Ryttervej in Svendborg.