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Sfax Railways vs Sporting Ben Arous — Ligue 2 2020

Sfax Railways
Sfax Railways
FT
0 – 0
Sporting Ben Arous
Sporting Ben Arous
12/4/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 4Stade 2 Mars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Sfax Railways53%
×Draw29%
Sporting Ben Arous17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sfax Railways
1.28
Sporting Ben Arous
0.59

Sfax Railways creates 117% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 46 away

creates per match

Sfax Railways
1.30
Sporting Ben Arous
0.54

allows per match

Sfax Railways
0.65
Sporting Ben Arous
1.26

finishing

Sfax Railways+0.00on par
Sporting Ben Arous+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sfax Railways ↓

Sporting Ben Arous →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Sfax Railways or draw
83%
Sfax Railways or Sporting Ben Arous
71%
Draw or Sporting Ben Arous
47%

Winning margin

Sfax Railways wins by 2+
25%
Sporting Ben Arous wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sfax Railways 1+ goals
72%
Sfax Railways 2+ goals
37%
Sfax Railways 3+ goals
14%
Sporting Ben Arous 1+ goals
45%
Sporting Ben Arous 2+ goals
12%
Sporting Ben Arous 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sfax Railways (draw refunded)
76%
Sporting Ben Arous (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sfax Railways at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.65 · 37 matches

Sporting Ben Arous away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sfax Railways attack 1.30 + Sporting Ben Arous defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.28

Sporting Ben Arous attack 0.54 + Sfax Railways defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sfax Railways scores more
53%
level
29%
Sporting Ben Arous scores more
17%

Sfax Railways at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sfax Railways will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Sfax Railways 0–0 Sporting Ben Arous

Sfax Railways and Sporting Ben Arous drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on December 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stade 2 Mars in Sfax.