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Sfax Railways vs Rogba Tataouine — Ligue 2 2020

Sfax Railways
Sfax Railways
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rogba Tataouine
Rogba Tataouine
12/22/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 10Stade d'Athlétisme 2 Mars 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Sfax Railways57%
×Draw28%
Rogba Tataouine16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sfax Railways
1.40
Rogba Tataouine
0.60

Sfax Railways creates 133% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 36 away

creates per match

Sfax Railways
1.30
Rogba Tataouine
0.56

allows per match

Sfax Railways
0.65
Rogba Tataouine
1.50

finishing

Sfax Railways+0.00on par
Rogba Tataouine+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sfax Railways ↓

Rogba Tataouine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sfax Railways or draw
84%
Sfax Railways or Rogba Tataouine
72%
Draw or Rogba Tataouine
43%

Winning margin

Sfax Railways wins by 2+
28%
Rogba Tataouine wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sfax Railways 1+ goals
75%
Sfax Railways 2+ goals
41%
Sfax Railways 3+ goals
17%
Rogba Tataouine 1+ goals
45%
Rogba Tataouine 2+ goals
12%
Rogba Tataouine 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sfax Railways (draw refunded)
78%
Rogba Tataouine (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sfax Railways at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.65 · 37 matches

Rogba Tataouine away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sfax Railways attack 1.30 + Rogba Tataouine defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Rogba Tataouine attack 0.56 + Sfax Railways defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sfax Railways scores more
57%
level
28%
Rogba Tataouine scores more
16%

Sfax Railways at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sfax Railways will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Sfax Railways 2–0 Rogba Tataouine

Sfax Railways beat Rogba Tataouine 2-0 in Ligue 2 on December 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stade d'Athlétisme 2 Mars 2 in Safāqis.