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Sfax Railways vs Radès — Ligue 2 2020

Sfax Railways
Sfax Railways
CANC
12:30
Radès
Radès
4/14/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Relegation Round - 3Stade Municipal de Akouda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Sfax Railways55%
×Draw27%
Radès18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sfax Railways
1.46
Radès
0.70

Sfax Railways creates 109% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 47 away

creates per match

Sfax Railways
1.30
Radès
0.74

allows per match

Sfax Railways
0.65
Radès
1.62

finishing

Sfax Railways+0.00on par
Radès+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sfax Railways ↓

Radès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sfax Railways or draw
82%
Sfax Railways or Radès
73%
Draw or Radès
45%

Winning margin

Sfax Railways wins by 2+
28%
Radès wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sfax Railways 1+ goals
77%
Sfax Railways 2+ goals
43%
Sfax Railways 3+ goals
18%
Radès 1+ goals
50%
Radès 2+ goals
16%
Radès 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sfax Railways (draw refunded)
76%
Radès (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sfax Railways at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.65 · 37 matches

Radès away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.62 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sfax Railways attack 1.30 + Radès defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.46

Radès attack 0.74 + Sfax Railways defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sfax Railways scores more
55%
level
27%
Radès scores more
18%

Sfax Railways at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sfax Railways will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sfax Railways host Radès

April 14, 2022: Sfax Railways take on Radès in Ligue 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sfax Railways host Radès at Stade Municipal de Akouda.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.