Sfax Railways 0–0 Kalaâ Sport: Result & Stats

Sfax Railways

FT

0 – 0

Kalaâ Sport

3/20/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 8Stade 2 Mars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Sfax Railways55%

×Draw27%

Kalaâ Sport18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sfax RailwaysExpected goals in this matchKalaâ Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.68

Sfax Railways

1.41

Kalaâ Sport

0.68

Sfax Railways creates 107% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 61 away

1.30

creates per match

0.70

0.65

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Sfax Railways

1.30

Kalaâ Sport

0.70

allows per match

Sfax Railways

0.65

Kalaâ Sport

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sfax Railways+0.00on par

Kalaâ Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sfax Railways ↓

Kalaâ Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sfax Railways or draw

82%

Sfax Railways or Kalaâ Sport

73%

Draw or Kalaâ Sport

45%

Winning margin

Sfax Railways wins by 2+

27%

Kalaâ Sport wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sfax Railways 1+ goals

76%

Sfax Railways 2+ goals

41%

Sfax Railways 3+ goals

17%

Kalaâ Sport 1+ goals

49%

Kalaâ Sport 2+ goals

15%

Kalaâ Sport 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sfax Railways (draw refunded)

75%

Kalaâ Sport (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sfax Railways at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.65 · 37 matches

Kalaâ Sport away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.51 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sfax Railways attack 1.30 + Kalaâ Sport defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.41

Kalaâ Sport attack 0.70 + Sfax Railways defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sfax Railways scores more

55%

level

27%

Kalaâ Sport scores more

18%

Sfax Railways at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sfax Railways will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff