Sfax Railways 3–2 Jerba: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Sfax Railways

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Jerba

5/23/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 26Stade d'Athlétisme 2 Mars 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Sfax Railways52%

×Draw30%

Jerba18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sfax RailwaysExpected goals in this matchJerba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.63

Sfax Railways

1.27

Jerba

0.63

Sfax Railways creates 102% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 48 away

1.30

creates per match

0.60

0.65

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Sfax Railways

1.30

Jerba

0.60

allows per match

Sfax Railways

0.65

Jerba

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sfax Railways+0.00on par

Jerba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sfax Railways ↓

Jerba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Sfax Railways or draw

82%

Sfax Railways or Jerba

70%

Draw or Jerba

48%

Winning margin

Sfax Railways wins by 2+

24%

Jerba wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sfax Railways 1+ goals

72%

Sfax Railways 2+ goals

36%

Sfax Railways 3+ goals

14%

Jerba 1+ goals

47%

Jerba 2+ goals

13%

Jerba 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sfax Railways (draw refunded)

74%

Jerba (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sfax Railways at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.65 · 37 matches

Jerba away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.23 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sfax Railways attack 1.30 + Jerba defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Jerba attack 0.60 + Sfax Railways defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sfax Railways scores more

52%

level

30%

Jerba scores more

18%

Sfax Railways at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sfax Railways will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff