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Sfax Railways vs BS Bouhajla — Ligue 2 2020

Sfax Railways
Sfax Railways
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
BS Bouhajla
BS Bouhajla
11/16/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sfax Railways45%
×Draw33%
BS Bouhajla22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sfax Railways
1.07
BS Bouhajla
0.64

Sfax Railways creates 67% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sfax Railways
1.30
BS Bouhajla
0.62

allows per match

Sfax Railways
0.65
BS Bouhajla
0.85

finishing

Sfax Railways+0.00on par
BS Bouhajla+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sfax Railways ↓

BS Bouhajla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Sfax Railways or draw
78%
Sfax Railways or BS Bouhajla
67%
Draw or BS Bouhajla
55%

Winning margin

Sfax Railways wins by 2+
19%
BS Bouhajla wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sfax Railways 1+ goals
66%
Sfax Railways 2+ goals
29%
Sfax Railways 3+ goals
9%
BS Bouhajla 1+ goals
47%
BS Bouhajla 2+ goals
14%
BS Bouhajla 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sfax Railways (draw refunded)
68%
BS Bouhajla (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sfax Railways at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.65 · 37 matches

BS Bouhajla away — creates 0.62, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sfax Railways attack 1.30 + BS Bouhajla defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.07

BS Bouhajla attack 0.62 + Sfax Railways defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sfax Railways scores more
45%
level
33%
BS Bouhajla scores more
22%

Sfax Railways at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sfax Railways will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sfax Railways vs BS Bouhajla

Sfax Railways beat BS Bouhajla 2-0 in Ligue 2 on November 16, 2025.