Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sfax Railways vs Ariana — Cup 2019

Sfax Railways
Sfax Railways
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ariana
Ariana
1/19/2025CupCup · 2nd Preliminary RoundStade d'Athlétisme 2 Mars 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sfax Railways57%
×Draw23%
Ariana20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sfax Railways
1.83
Ariana
1.00

Sfax Railways creates 83% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Sfax Railways
2.00
Ariana
1.33

allows per match

Sfax Railways
0.67
Ariana
1.67

finishing

Sfax Railways+0.00on par
Ariana+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sfax Railways ↓

Ariana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sfax Railways or draw
80%
Sfax Railways or Ariana
77%
Draw or Ariana
43%

Winning margin

Sfax Railways wins by 2+
32%
Ariana wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sfax Railways 1+ goals
84%
Sfax Railways 2+ goals
54%
Sfax Railways 3+ goals
28%
Ariana 1+ goals
63%
Ariana 2+ goals
26%
Ariana 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sfax Railways (draw refunded)
74%
Ariana (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sfax Railways at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Ariana away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sfax Railways attack 2.00 + Ariana defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Ariana attack 1.33 + Sfax Railways defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sfax Railways scores more
57%
level
23%
Ariana scores more
20%

Sfax Railways at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sfax Railways will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Sfax Railways 1–0 Ariana

Sfax Railways beat Ariana 1-0 in Cup on January 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stade d'Athlétisme 2 Mars 2 in Safāqis.