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SF Niederwenigern vs Union Nettetal — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SF Niederwenigern
SF Niederwenigern
CANC
13:00
Union Nettetal
Union Nettetal
4/18/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 36Glück Auf Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

SF Niederwenigern42%
×Draw22%
Union Nettetal36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SF Niederwenigern
1.93
Union Nettetal
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 74 away

creates per match

SF Niederwenigern
1.62
Union Nettetal
1.34

allows per match

SF Niederwenigern
2.23
Union Nettetal
2.23

finishing

SF Niederwenigern+0.00on par
Union Nettetal+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Niederwenigern ↓

Union Nettetal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

SF Niederwenigern or draw
64%
SF Niederwenigern or Union Nettetal
78%
Draw or Union Nettetal
58%

Winning margin

SF Niederwenigern wins by 2+
23%
Union Nettetal wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

SF Niederwenigern 1+ goals
85%
SF Niederwenigern 2+ goals
57%
SF Niederwenigern 3+ goals
30%
Union Nettetal 1+ goals
83%
Union Nettetal 2+ goals
53%
Union Nettetal 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

SF Niederwenigern (draw refunded)
54%
Union Nettetal (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Niederwenigern at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.23 · 39 matches

Union Nettetal away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.23 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Niederwenigern attack 1.62 + Union Nettetal defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.93

Union Nettetal attack 1.34 + SF Niederwenigern defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SF Niederwenigern scores more
42%
level
22%
Union Nettetal scores more
36%

SF Niederwenigern at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SF Niederwenigern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: SF Niederwenigern host Union Nettetal

April 18, 2021: SF Niederwenigern take on Union Nettetal in Oberliga - Niederrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

SF Niederwenigern host Union Nettetal at Glück Auf Sportplatz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.