SF Niederwenigern 1–0 Sonsbeck: Result & Stats

SF Niederwenigern

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sonsbeck

11/23/2024

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 15Glück Auf Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

SF Niederwenigern39%

×Draw22%

Sonsbeck38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SF NiederwenigernExpected goals in this matchSonsbeck

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.75

SF Niederwenigern

1.77

Sonsbeck

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 71 away

1.62

creates per match

1.28

2.23

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

SF Niederwenigern

1.62

Sonsbeck

1.28

allows per match

SF Niederwenigern

2.23

Sonsbeck

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SF Niederwenigern+0.00on par

Sonsbeck+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Niederwenigern ↓

Sonsbeck →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

SF Niederwenigern or draw

62%

SF Niederwenigern or Sonsbeck

78%

Draw or Sonsbeck

61%

Winning margin

SF Niederwenigern wins by 2+

20%

Sonsbeck wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

SF Niederwenigern 1+ goals

83%

SF Niederwenigern 2+ goals

53%

SF Niederwenigern 3+ goals

26%

Sonsbeck 1+ goals

83%

Sonsbeck 2+ goals

52%

Sonsbeck 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

SF Niederwenigern (draw refunded)

51%

Sonsbeck (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Niederwenigern at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.23 · 39 matches

Sonsbeck away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.93 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Niederwenigern attack 1.62 + Sonsbeck defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sonsbeck attack 1.28 + SF Niederwenigern defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SF Niederwenigern scores more

39%

level

22%

Sonsbeck scores more

38%

SF Niederwenigern at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "SF Niederwenigern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff