SF Niederwenigern 4–1 SC Velbert: Result & Stats

SF Niederwenigern

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

SC Velbert

5/22/2022

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - Relegation Round - 8Glück Auf Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

SF Niederwenigern51%

×Draw21%

SC Velbert28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SF NiederwenigernExpected goals in this matchSC Velbert

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.61

SF Niederwenigern

2.22

SC Velbert

1.61

SF Niederwenigern creates 38% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 22 away

1.62

creates per match

1.00

2.23

allows per match

2.82

creates per match

SF Niederwenigern

1.62

SC Velbert

1.00

allows per match

SF Niederwenigern

2.23

SC Velbert

2.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SF Niederwenigern+0.00on par

SC Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Niederwenigern ↓

SC Velbert →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

SF Niederwenigern or draw

72%

SF Niederwenigern or SC Velbert

79%

Draw or SC Velbert

49%

Winning margin

SF Niederwenigern wins by 2+

31%

SC Velbert wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

SF Niederwenigern 1+ goals

89%

SF Niederwenigern 2+ goals

65%

SF Niederwenigern 3+ goals

38%

SC Velbert 1+ goals

80%

SC Velbert 2+ goals

48%

SC Velbert 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

SF Niederwenigern (draw refunded)

65%

SC Velbert (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Niederwenigern at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.23 · 39 matches

SC Velbert away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Niederwenigern attack 1.62 + SC Velbert defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.22

SC Velbert attack 1.00 + SF Niederwenigern defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

SF Niederwenigern scores more

51%

level

21%

SC Velbert scores more

28%

SF Niederwenigern at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "SF Niederwenigern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff