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SF Niederwenigern vs Mülheimer — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SF Niederwenigern
SF Niederwenigern
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Mülheimer
Mülheimer
10/11/2024Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 10Glück Auf Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

SF Niederwenigern49%
×Draw21%
Mülheimer30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SF Niederwenigern
2.08
Mülheimer
1.60

SF Niederwenigern creates 30% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 34 away

creates per match

SF Niederwenigern
1.62
Mülheimer
0.97

allows per match

SF Niederwenigern
2.23
Mülheimer
2.53

finishing

SF Niederwenigern+0.00on par
Mülheimer+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Niederwenigern ↓

Mülheimer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

SF Niederwenigern or draw
70%
SF Niederwenigern or Mülheimer
79%
Draw or Mülheimer
51%

Winning margin

SF Niederwenigern wins by 2+
28%
Mülheimer wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

SF Niederwenigern 1+ goals
87%
SF Niederwenigern 2+ goals
61%
SF Niederwenigern 3+ goals
34%
Mülheimer 1+ goals
80%
Mülheimer 2+ goals
47%
Mülheimer 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

SF Niederwenigern (draw refunded)
62%
Mülheimer (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Niederwenigern at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.23 · 39 matches

Mülheimer away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Niederwenigern attack 1.62 + Mülheimer defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.08

Mülheimer attack 0.97 + SF Niederwenigern defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

SF Niederwenigern scores more
49%
level
21%
Mülheimer scores more
30%

SF Niederwenigern at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "SF Niederwenigern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: SF Niederwenigern 2–2 Mülheimer

SF Niederwenigern and Mülheimer drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on October 11, 2024.

The match was played at Glück Auf Sportplatz in Hattingen.