SF Niederwenigern 3–3 Meerbusch: Result & Stats

SF Niederwenigern

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Meerbusch

P. Schutte 84'

P. A. Renneberg 48'

D. Enz 32'

D. Aserov 87'

M. Benktib 70', 3'

6/1/2025

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 34Glück Auf Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

SF Niederwenigern37%

×Draw22%

Meerbusch41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SF NiederwenigernExpected goals in this matchMeerbusch

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.92

SF Niederwenigern

1.82

Meerbusch

1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 92 away

1.62

creates per match

1.61

2.23

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

SF Niederwenigern

1.62

Meerbusch

1.61

allows per match

SF Niederwenigern

2.23

Meerbusch

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SF Niederwenigern+0.00on par

Meerbusch+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Niederwenigern ↓

Meerbusch →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

SF Niederwenigern or draw

59%

SF Niederwenigern or Meerbusch

78%

Draw or Meerbusch

63%

Winning margin

SF Niederwenigern wins by 2+

19%

Meerbusch wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

SF Niederwenigern 1+ goals

84%

SF Niederwenigern 2+ goals

54%

SF Niederwenigern 3+ goals

27%

Meerbusch 1+ goals

85%

Meerbusch 2+ goals

57%

Meerbusch 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

SF Niederwenigern (draw refunded)

48%

Meerbusch (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Niederwenigern at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.23 · 39 matches

Meerbusch away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.02 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Niederwenigern attack 1.62 + Meerbusch defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.82

Meerbusch attack 1.61 + SF Niederwenigern defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

SF Niederwenigern scores more

37%

level

22%

Meerbusch scores more

41%

Meerbusch at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Meerbusch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

M. Benktib

32'

D. Enz

48'

P. A. Renneberg

70'

M. Benktib

84'

P. Schutte

87'

D. Aserov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff