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SF Niederwenigern vs Kray — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SF Niederwenigern
SF Niederwenigern
CANC
14:00
Kray
Kray
1/31/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 23Glück Auf Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

SF Niederwenigern48%
×Draw21%
Kray31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SF Niederwenigern
2.05
Kray
1.61

SF Niederwenigern creates 27% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 40 away

creates per match

SF Niederwenigern
1.62
Kray
1.00

allows per match

SF Niederwenigern
2.23
Kray
2.48

finishing

SF Niederwenigern+0.00on par
Kray+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Niederwenigern ↓

Kray →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

SF Niederwenigern or draw
69%
SF Niederwenigern or Kray
79%
Draw or Kray
52%

Winning margin

SF Niederwenigern wins by 2+
27%
Kray wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SF Niederwenigern 1+ goals
87%
SF Niederwenigern 2+ goals
61%
SF Niederwenigern 3+ goals
33%
Kray 1+ goals
80%
Kray 2+ goals
48%
Kray 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

SF Niederwenigern (draw refunded)
61%
Kray (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Niederwenigern at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.23 · 39 matches

Kray away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.48 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Niederwenigern attack 1.62 + Kray defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.05

Kray attack 1.00 + SF Niederwenigern defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

SF Niederwenigern scores more
48%
level
21%
Kray scores more
31%

SF Niederwenigern at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "SF Niederwenigern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SF Niederwenigern vs Kray — Match Preview

SF Niederwenigern face Kray on January 31, 2021 in this Oberliga - Niederrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

SF Niederwenigern host Kray at Glück Auf Sportplatz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.