Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SF Niederwenigern vs Homberg — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SF Niederwenigern
SF Niederwenigern
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Homberg
Homberg
3/16/2025Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 23Glück Auf Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

SF Niederwenigern36%
×Draw22%
Homberg42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SF Niederwenigern
1.73
Homberg
1.87

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 71 away

creates per match

SF Niederwenigern
1.62
Homberg
1.51

allows per match

SF Niederwenigern
2.23
Homberg
1.83

finishing

SF Niederwenigern+0.00on par
Homberg+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Niederwenigern ↓

Homberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

SF Niederwenigern or draw
58%
SF Niederwenigern or Homberg
78%
Draw or Homberg
64%

Winning margin

SF Niederwenigern wins by 2+
18%
Homberg wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

SF Niederwenigern 1+ goals
82%
SF Niederwenigern 2+ goals
52%
SF Niederwenigern 3+ goals
25%
Homberg 1+ goals
85%
Homberg 2+ goals
56%
Homberg 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

SF Niederwenigern (draw refunded)
46%
Homberg (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Niederwenigern at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.23 · 39 matches

Homberg away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.83 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Niederwenigern attack 1.62 + Homberg defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.73

Homberg attack 1.51 + SF Niederwenigern defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SF Niederwenigern scores more
36%
level
22%
Homberg scores more
42%

Homberg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Homberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: SF Niederwenigern 2–2 Homberg

SF Niederwenigern and Homberg drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Glück Auf Sportplatz in Hattingen.