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SF Niederwenigern vs FSV Duisburg — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SF Niederwenigern
SF Niederwenigern
CANC
18:00
FSV Duisburg
FSV Duisburg
11/18/2020Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 15Glück Auf Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

SF Niederwenigern51%
×Draw21%
FSV Duisburg28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SF Niederwenigern
2.16
FSV Duisburg
1.58

SF Niederwenigern creates 37% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 42 away

creates per match

SF Niederwenigern
1.62
FSV Duisburg
0.93

allows per match

SF Niederwenigern
2.23
FSV Duisburg
2.69

finishing

SF Niederwenigern+0.00on par
FSV Duisburg+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Niederwenigern ↓

FSV Duisburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

SF Niederwenigern or draw
72%
SF Niederwenigern or FSV Duisburg
79%
Draw or FSV Duisburg
49%

Winning margin

SF Niederwenigern wins by 2+
30%
FSV Duisburg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

SF Niederwenigern 1+ goals
88%
SF Niederwenigern 2+ goals
63%
SF Niederwenigern 3+ goals
36%
FSV Duisburg 1+ goals
79%
FSV Duisburg 2+ goals
47%
FSV Duisburg 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

SF Niederwenigern (draw refunded)
64%
FSV Duisburg (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Niederwenigern at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.23 · 39 matches

FSV Duisburg away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Niederwenigern attack 1.62 + FSV Duisburg defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.16

FSV Duisburg attack 0.93 + SF Niederwenigern defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

SF Niederwenigern scores more
51%
level
21%
FSV Duisburg scores more
28%

SF Niederwenigern at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "SF Niederwenigern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SF Niederwenigern face FSV Duisburg (Oberliga - Niederrhein)

Oberliga - Niederrhein returns with SF Niederwenigern hosting FSV Duisburg. Match starts November 18, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

SF Niederwenigern host FSV Duisburg at Glück Auf Sportplatz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.