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SF Hamborn vs Union Frintrop — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SF Hamborn
SF Hamborn
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Union Frintrop
Union Frintrop
11/5/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 13Containerbau MiRO Sportarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

SF Hamborn45%
×Draw24%
Union Frintrop31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SF Hamborn
1.63
Union Frintrop
1.30

SF Hamborn creates 25% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 34 away

creates per match

SF Hamborn
1.44
Union Frintrop
0.97

allows per match

SF Hamborn
1.64
Union Frintrop
1.82

finishing

SF Hamborn+0.00on par
Union Frintrop+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Hamborn ↓

Union Frintrop →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

SF Hamborn or draw
69%
SF Hamborn or Union Frintrop
76%
Draw or Union Frintrop
55%

Winning margin

SF Hamborn wins by 2+
23%
Union Frintrop wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

SF Hamborn 1+ goals
80%
SF Hamborn 2+ goals
48%
SF Hamborn 3+ goals
22%
Union Frintrop 1+ goals
73%
Union Frintrop 2+ goals
37%
Union Frintrop 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

SF Hamborn (draw refunded)
60%
Union Frintrop (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Hamborn at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.64 · 36 matches

Union Frintrop away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Hamborn attack 1.44 + Union Frintrop defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.63

Union Frintrop attack 0.97 + SF Hamborn defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

SF Hamborn scores more
45%
level
24%
Union Frintrop scores more
31%

SF Hamborn at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SF Hamborn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SF Hamborn vs Union Frintrop

SF Hamborn and Union Frintrop drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Containerbau MiRO Sportarena in Duisburg.