SF Hamborn 3–1 MSV Düsseldorf: Result & Stats

SF Hamborn

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

MSV Düsseldorf

3/26/2023

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 31Bezirkssportanlage Im Holtkamp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

SF Hamborn35%

×Draw22%

MSV Düsseldorf42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SF HambornExpected goals in this matchMSV Düsseldorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.82

SF Hamborn

1.65

MSV Düsseldorf

1.82

MSV Düsseldorf creates 10% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 20 away

1.44

creates per match

2.00

1.64

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

SF Hamborn

1.44

MSV Düsseldorf

2.00

allows per match

SF Hamborn

1.64

MSV Düsseldorf

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SF Hamborn+0.00on par

MSV Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Hamborn ↓

MSV Düsseldorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

SF Hamborn or draw

58%

SF Hamborn or MSV Düsseldorf

78%

Draw or MSV Düsseldorf

65%

Winning margin

SF Hamborn wins by 2+

17%

MSV Düsseldorf wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

SF Hamborn 1+ goals

81%

SF Hamborn 2+ goals

49%

SF Hamborn 3+ goals

23%

MSV Düsseldorf 1+ goals

84%

MSV Düsseldorf 2+ goals

54%

MSV Düsseldorf 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

SF Hamborn (draw refunded)

46%

MSV Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Hamborn at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.64 · 36 matches

MSV Düsseldorf away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Hamborn attack 1.44 + MSV Düsseldorf defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.65

MSV Düsseldorf attack 2.00 + SF Hamborn defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SF Hamborn scores more

35%

level

22%

MSV Düsseldorf scores more

42%

MSV Düsseldorf at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "MSV Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff