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SF Hamborn vs Kray — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SF Hamborn
SF Hamborn
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Kray
Kray
3/12/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 28Bezirkssportanlage Im Holtkamp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

SF Hamborn52%
×Draw22%
Kray26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SF Hamborn
1.96
Kray
1.32

SF Hamborn creates 48% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 40 away

creates per match

SF Hamborn
1.44
Kray
1.00

allows per match

SF Hamborn
1.64
Kray
2.48

finishing

SF Hamborn+0.00on par
Kray+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Hamborn ↓

Kray →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

SF Hamborn or draw
74%
SF Hamborn or Kray
78%
Draw or Kray
48%

Winning margin

SF Hamborn wins by 2+
30%
Kray wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

SF Hamborn 1+ goals
86%
SF Hamborn 2+ goals
58%
SF Hamborn 3+ goals
31%
Kray 1+ goals
73%
Kray 2+ goals
38%
Kray 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

SF Hamborn (draw refunded)
67%
Kray (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Hamborn at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.64 · 36 matches

Kray away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.48 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Hamborn attack 1.44 + Kray defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 1.96

Kray attack 1.00 + SF Hamborn defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

SF Hamborn scores more
52%
level
22%
Kray scores more
26%

SF Hamborn at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SF Hamborn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SF Hamborn vs Kray

SF Hamborn and Kray drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Bezirkssportanlage Im Holtkamp in Duisburg.