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SF Hamborn vs Homberg — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SF Hamborn
SF Hamborn
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Homberg
Homberg
1/29/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 22Bezirkssportanlage Im Holtkamp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

SF Hamborn40%
×Draw23%
Homberg37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SF Hamborn
1.64
Homberg
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 71 away

creates per match

SF Hamborn
1.44
Homberg
1.51

allows per match

SF Hamborn
1.64
Homberg
1.83

finishing

SF Hamborn+0.00on par
Homberg+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Hamborn ↓

Homberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

SF Hamborn or draw
63%
SF Hamborn or Homberg
77%
Draw or Homberg
60%

Winning margin

SF Hamborn wins by 2+
20%
Homberg wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

SF Hamborn 1+ goals
81%
SF Hamborn 2+ goals
49%
SF Hamborn 3+ goals
23%
Homberg 1+ goals
79%
Homberg 2+ goals
46%
Homberg 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

SF Hamborn (draw refunded)
52%
Homberg (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Hamborn at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.64 · 36 matches

Homberg away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.83 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Hamborn attack 1.44 + Homberg defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.64

Homberg attack 1.51 + SF Hamborn defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SF Hamborn scores more
40%
level
23%
Homberg scores more
37%

SF Hamborn at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SF Hamborn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: SF Hamborn 2–2 Homberg

SF Hamborn and Homberg drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Bezirkssportanlage Im Holtkamp in Duisburg.