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SF Hamborn vs Germania Ratingen — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SF Hamborn
SF Hamborn
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Germania Ratingen
Germania Ratingen
9/21/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 9VT Ripkens Sportpark Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

SF Hamborn34%
×Draw23%
Germania Ratingen43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SF Hamborn
1.55
Germania Ratingen
1.75

Germania Ratingen creates 13% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 91 away

creates per match

SF Hamborn
1.44
Germania Ratingen
1.85

allows per match

SF Hamborn
1.64
Germania Ratingen
1.67

finishing

SF Hamborn+0.00on par
Germania Ratingen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Hamborn ↓

Germania Ratingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

SF Hamborn or draw
57%
SF Hamborn or Germania Ratingen
77%
Draw or Germania Ratingen
66%

Winning margin

SF Hamborn wins by 2+
16%
Germania Ratingen wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

SF Hamborn 1+ goals
79%
SF Hamborn 2+ goals
46%
SF Hamborn 3+ goals
20%
Germania Ratingen 1+ goals
83%
Germania Ratingen 2+ goals
52%
Germania Ratingen 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

SF Hamborn (draw refunded)
45%
Germania Ratingen (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Hamborn at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.64 · 36 matches

Germania Ratingen away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.67 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Hamborn attack 1.44 + Germania Ratingen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.55

Germania Ratingen attack 1.85 + SF Hamborn defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SF Hamborn scores more
34%
level
23%
Germania Ratingen scores more
43%

Germania Ratingen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Germania Ratingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SF Hamborn vs Germania Ratingen

SF Hamborn and Germania Ratingen drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on September 21, 2022.

The match was played at VT Ripkens Sportpark Platz 3 in Duisburg.