SF Grei 11–1 Pors Grenland II: Result & Stats

SF Grei

FT

11 – 1

HT: 6 – 1

Pors Grenland II

10/11/2025

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 24Greibanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

SF Grei77%

×Draw12%

Pors Grenland II11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SF GreiExpected goals in this matchPors Grenland II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.74

1.42

SF Grei

3.74

Pors Grenland II

1.42

SF Grei creates 163% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.85

creates per match

0.92

1.92

allows per match

4.62

creates per match

SF Grei

2.85

Pors Grenland II

0.92

allows per match

SF Grei

1.92

Pors Grenland II

4.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SF Grei+0.00on par

Pors Grenland II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Grei ↓

Pors Grenland II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–13%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–17%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

73%27%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

SF Grei or draw

89%

SF Grei or Pors Grenland II

88%

Draw or Pors Grenland II

23%

Winning margin

SF Grei wins by 2+

60%

Pors Grenland II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

SF Grei 1+ goals

97%

SF Grei 2+ goals

88%

SF Grei 3+ goals

70%

Pors Grenland II 1+ goals

76%

Pors Grenland II 2+ goals

41%

Pors Grenland II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

SF Grei (draw refunded)

88%

Pors Grenland II (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Grei at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Pors Grenland II away — creates 0.92, concedes 4.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Grei attack 2.85 + Pors Grenland II defence 4.62 → ÷2 → 3.74

Pors Grenland II attack 0.92 + SF Grei defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

SF Grei scores more

77%

level

12%

Pors Grenland II scores more

11%

SF Grei at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "SF Grei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff