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SF Grei vs Grorud II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

SF Grei
SF Grei
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Grorud II
Grorud II
M. Ghous 53', 18'
F. Finnoy 90'
N. A. Jacobsen 74'
B. B. Kisaruko 42', 26'
10/23/20223. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 26Greibanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

SF Grei36%
×Draw20%
Grorud II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SF Grei
2.15
Grorud II
2.38

Grorud II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 33 away

creates per match

SF Grei
1.84
Grorud II
1.88

allows per match

SF Grei
2.89
Grorud II
2.45

finishing

SF Grei+0.00on par
Grorud II+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Grei ↓

Grorud II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

SF Grei or draw
56%
SF Grei or Grorud II
80%
Draw or Grorud II
64%

Winning margin

SF Grei wins by 2+
20%
Grorud II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

SF Grei 1+ goals
88%
SF Grei 2+ goals
63%
SF Grei 3+ goals
36%
Grorud II 1+ goals
91%
Grorud II 2+ goals
68%
Grorud II 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

SF Grei (draw refunded)
45%
Grorud II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Grei at home — creates 1.84, concedes 2.89 · 19 matches

Grorud II away — creates 1.88, concedes 2.45 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Grei attack 1.84 + Grorud II defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.15

Grorud II attack 1.88 + SF Grei defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SF Grei scores more
36%
level
20%
Grorud II scores more
44%

Grorud II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Grorud II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
M. Ghous
26'
B. B. Kisaruko
42'
B. B. Kisaruko
53'
M. Ghous
74'
N. A. Jacobsen
90'
F. Finnoy

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: SF Grei 2–4 Grorud II

Grorud II beat SF Grei 4-2 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on October 23, 2022.

Goals: M. Ghous (18', 53'), B. B. Kisaruko (26', 42'), N. A. Jacobsen (74'), F. Finnoy (90').

The match was played at Greibanen in Oslo.