Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SF Grei vs Fredrikstad II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

SF Grei
SF Grei
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Fredrikstad II
Fredrikstad II
6/7/20253. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 9Greibanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

SF Grei60%
×Draw18%
Fredrikstad II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SF Grei
2.70
Fredrikstad II
1.61

SF Grei creates 68% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

SF Grei
2.85
Fredrikstad II
1.31

allows per match

SF Grei
1.92
Fredrikstad II
2.54

finishing

SF Grei+0.00on par
Fredrikstad II+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Grei ↓

Fredrikstad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

SF Grei or draw
78%
SF Grei or Fredrikstad II
82%
Draw or Fredrikstad II
40%

Winning margin

SF Grei wins by 2+
40%
Fredrikstad II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SF Grei 1+ goals
93%
SF Grei 2+ goals
75%
SF Grei 3+ goals
50%
Fredrikstad II 1+ goals
80%
Fredrikstad II 2+ goals
48%
Fredrikstad II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

SF Grei (draw refunded)
73%
Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Grei at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Fredrikstad II away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Grei attack 2.85 + Fredrikstad II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.70

Fredrikstad II attack 1.31 + SF Grei defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

SF Grei scores more
60%
level
18%
Fredrikstad II scores more
22%

SF Grei at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "SF Grei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SF Grei vs Fredrikstad II

SF Grei beat Fredrikstad II 5-0 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on June 7, 2025.

The match was played at Greibanen in Oslo.