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SF Glens vs Orange County SC II — USL League Two 2018

SF Glens
SF Glens
FT
1 – 1
Orange County SC II
Orange County SC II
7/14/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 1Matthew J. Boxer Stadium (San Francisco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

SF Glens49%
×Draw24%
Orange County SC II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SF Glens
1.75
Orange County SC II
1.27

SF Glens creates 38% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 4 away

creates per match

SF Glens
2.00
Orange County SC II
1.50

allows per match

SF Glens
1.05
Orange County SC II
1.50

finishing

SF Glens+0.00on par
Orange County SC II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Glens ↓

Orange County SC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

SF Glens or draw
72%
SF Glens or Orange County SC II
76%
Draw or Orange County SC II
51%

Winning margin

SF Glens wins by 2+
26%
Orange County SC II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

SF Glens 1+ goals
83%
SF Glens 2+ goals
52%
SF Glens 3+ goals
25%
Orange County SC II 1+ goals
72%
Orange County SC II 2+ goals
36%
Orange County SC II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

SF Glens (draw refunded)
64%
Orange County SC II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Glens at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.05 · 37 matches

Orange County SC II away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Glens attack 2.00 + Orange County SC II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Orange County SC II attack 1.50 + SF Glens defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

SF Glens scores more
49%
level
24%
Orange County SC II scores more
28%

SF Glens at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "SF Glens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SF Glens 1 – 1 Orange County SC II

SF Glens and Orange County SC II drew 1-1 in USL League Two on July 14, 2019.

The match was played at Matthew J. Boxer Stadium (San Francisco).