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SF Baumberg vs Teutonia St.Tönis — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SF Baumberg
SF Baumberg
FT
4 – 1
Teutonia St.Tönis
Teutonia St.Tönis
10/3/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 7MEGA-Stadion Sandstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

SF Baumberg47%
×Draw22%
Teutonia St.Tönis31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SF Baumberg
1.98
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.59

SF Baumberg creates 25% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 21 away

creates per match

SF Baumberg
2.10
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.90

allows per match

SF Baumberg
1.29
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.86

finishing

SF Baumberg+0.00on par
Teutonia St.Tönis+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Baumberg ↓

Teutonia St.Tönis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

SF Baumberg or draw
69%
SF Baumberg or Teutonia St.Tönis
78%
Draw or Teutonia St.Tönis
53%

Winning margin

SF Baumberg wins by 2+
26%
Teutonia St.Tönis wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SF Baumberg 1+ goals
86%
SF Baumberg 2+ goals
59%
SF Baumberg 3+ goals
31%
Teutonia St.Tönis 1+ goals
80%
Teutonia St.Tönis 2+ goals
47%
Teutonia St.Tönis 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

SF Baumberg (draw refunded)
60%
Teutonia St.Tönis (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Baumberg at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches

Teutonia St.Tönis away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Baumberg attack 2.10 + Teutonia St.Tönis defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.98

Teutonia St.Tönis attack 1.90 + SF Baumberg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SF Baumberg scores more
47%
level
22%
Teutonia St.Tönis scores more
31%

SF Baumberg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SF Baumberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: SF Baumberg 4–1 Teutonia St.Tönis

SF Baumberg beat Teutonia St.Tönis 4-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at MEGA-Stadion Sandstraße in Monheim am Rhein.