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SF Baumberg vs Straelen — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SF Baumberg
SF Baumberg
CANC
13:00
Straelen
Straelen
4/28/2024Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 29MEGA-Stadion Sandstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

SF Baumberg36%
×Draw23%
Straelen41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SF Baumberg
1.61
Straelen
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 8 away

creates per match

SF Baumberg
2.10
Straelen
2.13

allows per match

SF Baumberg
1.29
Straelen
1.13

finishing

SF Baumberg+0.00on par
Straelen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Baumberg ↓

Straelen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

SF Baumberg or draw
59%
SF Baumberg or Straelen
77%
Draw or Straelen
64%

Winning margin

SF Baumberg wins by 2+
18%
Straelen wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

SF Baumberg 1+ goals
80%
SF Baumberg 2+ goals
48%
SF Baumberg 3+ goals
22%
Straelen 1+ goals
82%
Straelen 2+ goals
51%
Straelen 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

SF Baumberg (draw refunded)
47%
Straelen (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Baumberg at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches

Straelen away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Baumberg attack 2.10 + Straelen defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.61

Straelen attack 2.13 + SF Baumberg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

SF Baumberg scores more
36%
level
23%
Straelen scores more
41%

Straelen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Straelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SF Baumberg face Straelen (Oberliga - Niederrhein)

Oberliga - Niederrhein returns with SF Baumberg hosting Straelen. Match starts April 28, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

SF Baumberg host Straelen at MEGA-Stadion Sandstraße.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.