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SF Baumberg vs SC Velbert — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SF Baumberg
SF Baumberg
CANC
13:00
SC Velbert
SC Velbert
5/23/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 42MEGA-Stadion Sandstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

SF Baumberg66%
×Draw18%
SC Velbert16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SF Baumberg
2.46
SC Velbert
1.15

SF Baumberg creates 114% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 22 away

creates per match

SF Baumberg
2.10
SC Velbert
1.00

allows per match

SF Baumberg
1.29
SC Velbert
2.82

finishing

SF Baumberg+0.00on par
SC Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Baumberg ↓

SC Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

SF Baumberg or draw
84%
SF Baumberg or SC Velbert
82%
Draw or SC Velbert
34%

Winning margin

SF Baumberg wins by 2+
44%
SC Velbert wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

SF Baumberg 1+ goals
91%
SF Baumberg 2+ goals
70%
SF Baumberg 3+ goals
44%
SC Velbert 1+ goals
68%
SC Velbert 2+ goals
32%
SC Velbert 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SF Baumberg (draw refunded)
80%
SC Velbert (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Baumberg at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches

SC Velbert away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Baumberg attack 2.10 + SC Velbert defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.46

SC Velbert attack 1.00 + SF Baumberg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

SF Baumberg scores more
66%
level
18%
SC Velbert scores more
16%

SF Baumberg at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "SF Baumberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SF Baumberg vs SC Velbert — Match Preview

SF Baumberg face SC Velbert on May 23, 2021 in this Oberliga - Niederrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

SF Baumberg host SC Velbert at MEGA-Stadion Sandstraße.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.