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SF Baumberg vs Rather SV — Friendlies Clubs 2026

SF Baumberg
SF Baumberg
FT
3 – 2
Rather SV
Rather SV
7/18/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

SF Baumberg26%
×Draw19%
Rather SV55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SF Baumberg
1.63
Rather SV
2.42

Rather SV creates 48% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

SF Baumberg
2.00
Rather SV
2.00

allows per match

SF Baumberg
2.83
Rather SV
1.25

finishing

SF Baumberg+0.00on par
Rather SV+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Baumberg ↓

Rather SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

SF Baumberg or draw
45%
SF Baumberg or Rather SV
81%
Draw or Rather SV
74%

Winning margin

SF Baumberg wins by 2+
12%
Rather SV wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

SF Baumberg 1+ goals
80%
SF Baumberg 2+ goals
48%
SF Baumberg 3+ goals
22%
Rather SV 1+ goals
91%
Rather SV 2+ goals
69%
Rather SV 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

SF Baumberg (draw refunded)
32%
Rather SV (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Baumberg at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Rather SV away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Baumberg attack 2.00 + Rather SV defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Rather SV attack 2.00 + SF Baumberg defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

SF Baumberg scores more
26%
level
19%
Rather SV scores more
55%

Rather SV at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Rather SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: SF Baumberg 3–2 Rather SV

SF Baumberg beat Rather SV 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 18, 2020.