SF Baumberg 2–2 MSV Düsseldorf: Result & Stats

SF Baumberg

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

MSV Düsseldorf

11/13/2022

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 18MEGA-Stadion Sandstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

SF Baumberg46%

×Draw22%

MSV Düsseldorf33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SF BaumbergExpected goals in this matchMSV Düsseldorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.65

SF Baumberg

1.98

MSV Düsseldorf

1.65

SF Baumberg creates 20% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 20 away

2.10

creates per match

2.00

1.29

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

SF Baumberg

2.10

MSV Düsseldorf

2.00

allows per match

SF Baumberg

1.29

MSV Düsseldorf

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SF Baumberg+0.00on par

MSV Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Baumberg ↓

MSV Düsseldorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

SF Baumberg or draw

67%

SF Baumberg or MSV Düsseldorf

78%

Draw or MSV Düsseldorf

54%

Winning margin

SF Baumberg wins by 2+

26%

MSV Düsseldorf wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

SF Baumberg 1+ goals

86%

SF Baumberg 2+ goals

59%

SF Baumberg 3+ goals

31%

MSV Düsseldorf 1+ goals

81%

MSV Düsseldorf 2+ goals

49%

MSV Düsseldorf 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

SF Baumberg (draw refunded)

58%

MSV Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Baumberg at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches

MSV Düsseldorf away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Baumberg attack 2.10 + MSV Düsseldorf defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.98

MSV Düsseldorf attack 2.00 + SF Baumberg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

SF Baumberg scores more

46%

level

22%

MSV Düsseldorf scores more

33%

SF Baumberg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SF Baumberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff