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SF Baumberg vs FSV Duisburg — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SF Baumberg
SF Baumberg
CANC
14:00
FSV Duisburg
FSV Duisburg
12/6/2020Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 18MEGA-Stadion Sandstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

SF Baumberg65%
×Draw18%
FSV Duisburg16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SF Baumberg
2.40
FSV Duisburg
1.11

SF Baumberg creates 116% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 42 away

creates per match

SF Baumberg
2.10
FSV Duisburg
0.93

allows per match

SF Baumberg
1.29
FSV Duisburg
2.69

finishing

SF Baumberg+0.00on par
FSV Duisburg+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Baumberg ↓

FSV Duisburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

SF Baumberg or draw
84%
SF Baumberg or FSV Duisburg
82%
Draw or FSV Duisburg
35%

Winning margin

SF Baumberg wins by 2+
43%
FSV Duisburg wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

SF Baumberg 1+ goals
91%
SF Baumberg 2+ goals
69%
SF Baumberg 3+ goals
42%
FSV Duisburg 1+ goals
67%
FSV Duisburg 2+ goals
30%
FSV Duisburg 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SF Baumberg (draw refunded)
80%
FSV Duisburg (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Baumberg at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches

FSV Duisburg away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Baumberg attack 2.10 + FSV Duisburg defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.40

FSV Duisburg attack 0.93 + SF Baumberg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

SF Baumberg scores more
65%
level
18%
FSV Duisburg scores more
16%

SF Baumberg at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "SF Baumberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: SF Baumberg host FSV Duisburg

December 6, 2020: SF Baumberg take on FSV Duisburg in Oberliga - Niederrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

SF Baumberg host FSV Duisburg at MEGA-Stadion Sandstraße.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.