Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SexyPöxyt vs VJS — Suomen Cup 2018

SexyPöxyt
SexyPöxyt
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
VJS
VJS
4/16/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundLaaksolahden tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

SexyPöxyt16%
×Draw15%
VJS69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SexyPöxyt
1.56
VJS
3.22

VJS creates 106% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

SexyPöxyt
2.00
VJS
3.44

allows per match

SexyPöxyt
3.00
VJS
1.11

finishing

SexyPöxyt+0.00on par
VJS+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SexyPöxyt ↓

VJS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

SexyPöxyt or draw
31%
SexyPöxyt or VJS
85%
Draw or VJS
84%

Winning margin

SexyPöxyt wins by 2+
7%
VJS wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

SexyPöxyt 1+ goals
79%
SexyPöxyt 2+ goals
46%
SexyPöxyt 3+ goals
21%
VJS 1+ goals
96%
VJS 2+ goals
82%
VJS 3+ goals
61%

Draw no bet

SexyPöxyt (draw refunded)
19%
VJS (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SexyPöxyt at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

VJS away — creates 3.44, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SexyPöxyt attack 2.00 + VJS defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.56

VJS attack 3.44 + SexyPöxyt defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

SexyPöxyt scores more
16%
level
15%
VJS scores more
69%

VJS at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "VJS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SexyPöxyt vs VJS

VJS beat SexyPöxyt 2-0 in Suomen Cup on April 16, 2024.

The match was played at Laaksolahden tekonurmi in Esbo.