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SexyPöxyt vs Honka — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

SexyPöxyt
SexyPöxyt
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Honka
Honka
5/18/2024Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 8Laaksolahden tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

SexyPöxyt14%
×Draw17%
Honka69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SexyPöxyt
1.08
Honka
2.56

Honka creates 137% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 19 away

creates per match

SexyPöxyt
1.00
Honka
2.68

allows per match

SexyPöxyt
2.43
Honka
1.16

finishing

SexyPöxyt+0.00on par
Honka+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SexyPöxyt ↓

Honka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

SexyPöxyt or draw
31%
SexyPöxyt or Honka
83%
Draw or Honka
86%

Winning margin

SexyPöxyt wins by 2+
5%
Honka wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

SexyPöxyt 1+ goals
66%
SexyPöxyt 2+ goals
29%
SexyPöxyt 3+ goals
10%
Honka 1+ goals
92%
Honka 2+ goals
72%
Honka 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

SexyPöxyt (draw refunded)
17%
Honka (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SexyPöxyt at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.43 · 21 matches

Honka away — creates 2.68, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SexyPöxyt attack 1.00 + Honka defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Honka attack 2.68 + SexyPöxyt defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

SexyPöxyt scores more
14%
level
17%
Honka scores more
69%

Honka at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Honka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko B: SexyPöxyt 0–3 Honka

Honka beat SexyPöxyt 3-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Laaksolahden tekonurmi in Esbo.