SexyPöxyt 2–1 HJS Akatemia: Result & Stats

SexyPöxyt

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

HJS Akatemia

7/15/2023

Kakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 11Laaksolahden tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

SexyPöxyt27%

×Draw22%

HJS Akatemia50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SexyPöxytExpected goals in this matchHJS Akatemia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.94

SexyPöxyt

1.38

HJS Akatemia

1.94

HJS Akatemia creates 41% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 80 away

1.00

creates per match

1.45

2.43

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

SexyPöxyt

1.00

HJS Akatemia

1.45

allows per match

SexyPöxyt

2.43

HJS Akatemia

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SexyPöxyt+0.00on par

HJS Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SexyPöxyt ↓

HJS Akatemia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

SexyPöxyt or draw

50%

SexyPöxyt or HJS Akatemia

78%

Draw or HJS Akatemia

73%

Winning margin

SexyPöxyt wins by 2+

12%

HJS Akatemia wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

SexyPöxyt 1+ goals

75%

SexyPöxyt 2+ goals

40%

SexyPöxyt 3+ goals

16%

HJS Akatemia 1+ goals

86%

HJS Akatemia 2+ goals

58%

HJS Akatemia 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

SexyPöxyt (draw refunded)

35%

HJS Akatemia (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SexyPöxyt at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.43 · 21 matches

HJS Akatemia away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.75 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SexyPöxyt attack 1.00 + HJS Akatemia defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

HJS Akatemia attack 1.45 + SexyPöxyt defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

SexyPöxyt scores more

27%

level

22%

HJS Akatemia scores more

50%

HJS Akatemia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "HJS Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff