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Sexypöxyt O35 vs HPS — Suomen Cup 2018

Sexypöxyt O35
Sexypöxyt O35
FT
0 – 7
HPS
HPS
2/19/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Preliminary RoundFA Solutions Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sexypöxyt O3529%
×Draw17%
HPS54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sexypöxyt O35
2.90
HPS
3.90

HPS creates 34% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Sexypöxyt O35
5.00
HPS
5.80

allows per match

Sexypöxyt O35
2.00
HPS
0.80

finishing

Sexypöxyt O35+0.00on par
HPS+0.00on par

Total goals

96%Over
  • Over96
  • Under4

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

92%Yes
  • Yes92
  • No8

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sexypöxyt O35 ↓

HPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–23%
1–34%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–35%
3–45%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–23%
4–34%
4–44%

Most likely 2–3 (5%) · grid covers 62% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
96%4%3.5
89%11%4.5
78%22%

Double chance

Sexypöxyt O35 or draw
46%
Sexypöxyt O35 or HPS
83%
Draw or HPS
71%

Winning margin

Sexypöxyt O35 wins by 2+
16%
HPS wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Sexypöxyt O35 1+ goals
94%
Sexypöxyt O35 2+ goals
78%
Sexypöxyt O35 3+ goals
54%
HPS 1+ goals
98%
HPS 2+ goals
89%
HPS 3+ goals
72%

Draw no bet

Sexypöxyt O35 (draw refunded)
35%
HPS (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
91%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sexypöxyt O35 at home — creates 5.00, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

HPS away — creates 5.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sexypöxyt O35 attack 5.00 + HPS defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 2.90

HPS attack 5.80 + Sexypöxyt O35 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sexypöxyt O35 scores more
29%
level
17%
HPS scores more
54%

HPS at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "HPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sexypöxyt O35 vs HPS

HPS beat Sexypöxyt O35 7-0 in Suomen Cup on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at FA Solutions Arena in Grankulla.